Spring Training Notes: Brewers

Greetings! Well, it's been nearly a month since I last updated this blog and I have been woefully negligent in keeping things up to date. I'd probably work a bit harder if I thought people were actually reading my blogs!

In any case, today is day one of my attempt to blog daily (as time permits). So, for today, I will concentrate on the Brewers and tomorrow I will concentrate on Braves updates.

I would like to say that I am impressed with the JS Online's Brewer's Blog more so than the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's "blog" that is mainly conducted by David O'Brien (although, it was fun a couple of weeks ago when Chipper Jones visited the blog...yet again, I digress). It's been actually far more easier to keep track of the daily off-season action with the Brewers than the Braves, although you do get daily spring training photos of the Braves at AJC.com.

So, on this day, the day of the last full lunar eclipse until 2010, let's see what's going on with the Crew.

Early Picks for the Central Division

Despite holding the lead for much of the season last year, not many experts are picking the Brewers to win the division. Projections have been forecast showing the Brewers to finish either second or third (some have speculated that the Astros are somehow going to contend...).

The Brewers are in "win-now" mode, which means everyone from ownership to the players are expecting to win the division. So, why the negatives?

First, there has been considerable discussion about moving Ryan Braun to left field, and there are questions about the Crew's bullpen. Baseball Prospectus considers the Cubs to be the early favorites if not for anything but the fact that they won the division last year. The Cubs have done nothing to shore up their middle infield, while the Crew actually increased their defense by moving Bill Hall to third base.

As for the bullpen question, it seems that the bullpen is going to be far stronger than last season with the Crew acquiring several pieces. David Riske, Guillermo Mota, and Salomon Torres are the major acquisitions who most people seem to forget about. These three provide several long term and specialty relief roles which makes the bullpen far more formidable than in years past. Of course, most analysts discuss the signing of Eric Gagne and much is made of his "meltdown" at the end of last season when he went from being a good closer with the Texas Rangers to horrible in a set up role with the Boston Red Sox. And let's not forget the Mitchell Report either, of which Gagne is wisely avoiding any discussion. The real problem last season was not that the bullpen was inadequate as much as the starting pitchers were not able to pitch late into games. The bottom line is that the bullpen just became tired last season, which did not bode well come August and September.

I think that the depth of the bullpen will be remarkable this season. It'll be difficult to see how it will shake out since there is certainly a battle for who will hold the top five spots in the rotation. A healthy Ben Sheets will make a huge difference on the club, and the club now has to wait and see how Yovanni Gallardo heals from his minor knee injury (he's expected to be set back about a month). This might actually work in favor for a few others who are looking for a spot in the rotation. Right now, the five spots are being fought for by Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargus, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueava, Manny Parra, Dave Bush and Gallardo when he returns. Unlike last season, there is a lot of depth in starting pitching, and I hope the Crew does not entertain trading any of that depth.

Third baseman, Bill Hall (Finally)

I still do not understand why the Brewers wanted to move Bill Hall to centerfield when it was apparent in 2006 that he was an excellent infielder. But the Brewers thought that Bill Hall had the proclivity to play the position, and to his credit, he did improve quite a bit through the season. But, I firmly believe when you take a player and move him defensively into an unnatural position you put an awful lot on him and his offense tends to suffer. Bill Hall is another casualty of a team experimenting. I can't blame the Brewers though, since they are, after all, a small market team and they were merely trying to use a valuable resource. If the move worked, it would have been viewed as one of the most brilliant moves in Brewer history, but as it was, it was a bit of bust. It definitely could have been far worse, but we all knew good and well that Bill Hall should have been at third last year when Corie Koskie's recovery seemed unlikely.

Ryan Braun certainly lacked the defensive prowess needed at the position, but he showed flashes of brilliance as well. I think he would have been an able third baseman given time, but the Brewers feel that is not a luxury they can afford right now. Replacing third base with a capable glove means a very strong infield, and that also means less extended innings via free outs (errors).

Was Bill Hall happy about the move to third base? In a JSOnline article by Anthony Witrado it's pretty clear that Bill Hall was a bit surprised when Doug Melvin signed Mike Cameron to play centerfield. But, Bill Hall also stated, "My whole thing is I just want to get somewhere where I can get comfortable for the rest of my career" which suggests to me that he's very open to be the third baseman of the Brewers.

Batting Order Issues

One of the things the Brewers will have to work out this spring training is the batting order, especially with the heart of the order. The problem? Who will hit third and fourth. Last season, the combination of having Braun hitting third and Fielder cleanup was excellent, but what happens this year? Some have suggested moving Fielder to third to give him a chance to see some better pitches. I think that's a good move as well, but I also don't see how you can go wrong with either in the third hole or cleanup.

The big issue, to me, is the lead-off. And it all comes down to whether Ricky Weeks' wrist is really healthy again, because we know he can run. I liked having Corey Hart hitting leadoff last season, although he's not your prototypical leadoff hitter. He hit .295 last season and he even showed a great deal of power, which is why I'd probably think more about placing him either as number 2 or 5. Mike Cameron will probably be given a good look at leadoff, but I actually think I'd move him down lower.

As of today, here's what I'd use as a starting lineup (sans pitcher):

Rickey Weeks (2B)
JJ Hardy (SS)
Ryan Braun (LF)
Prince Fielder (1B)
Bill Hall (3B)
Corey Hart (RF)
Mike Cameron (CF)
Jason Kendall (C)

My thoughts may change given the way players perform in spring training. But having Rickey leading off makes the most sense to me and then having JJ in the number 2 hole works because he has improved so much as a hitter the last couple of seasons. I think this is a formidable lineup and capable of sending another 200+ baseballs over the fence again this season.

As for the starting rotation:

Ben Sheets
Yovanni Gallardo
Chris Capuano
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra

I think this rotation would be strong, and I also believe Cappy can be replaced by Villanueva if he still can't return to his form. I think Cappy is due to bounce back. I also think Manny Parra wins a position or gets traded. As for Dave Bush, I'd move him in the bullpen and give him some spot starts.