Greetings! Well, it's been nearly a month since I last updated this blog and I have been woefully negligent in keeping things up to date. I'd probably work a bit harder if I thought people were actually reading my blogs!
In any case, today is day one of my attempt to blog daily (as time permits). So, for today, I will concentrate on the Brewers and tomorrow I will concentrate on Braves updates.
I would like to say that I am impressed with the JS Online's Brewer's Blog more so than the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's "blog" that is mainly conducted by David O'Brien (although, it was fun a couple of weeks ago when Chipper Jones visited the blog...yet again, I digress). It's been actually far more easier to keep track of the daily off-season action with the Brewers than the Braves, although you do get daily spring training photos of the Braves at AJC.com.
So, on this day, the day of the last full lunar eclipse until 2010, let's see what's going on with the Crew.
Early Picks for the Central Division
Despite holding the lead for much of the season last year, not many experts are picking the Brewers to win the division. Projections have been forecast showing the Brewers to finish either second or third (some have speculated that the Astros are somehow going to contend...).
The Brewers are in "win-now" mode, which means everyone from ownership to the players are expecting to win the division. So, why the negatives?
First, there has been considerable discussion about moving Ryan Braun to left field, and there are questions about the Crew's bullpen. Baseball Prospectus considers the Cubs to be the early favorites if not for anything but the fact that they won the division last year. The Cubs have done nothing to shore up their middle infield, while the Crew actually increased their defense by moving Bill Hall to third base.
As for the bullpen question, it seems that the bullpen is going to be far stronger than last season with the Crew acquiring several pieces. David Riske, Guillermo Mota, and Salomon Torres are the major acquisitions who most people seem to forget about. These three provide several long term and specialty relief roles which makes the bullpen far more formidable than in years past. Of course, most analysts discuss the signing of Eric Gagne and much is made of his "meltdown" at the end of last season when he went from being a good closer with the Texas Rangers to horrible in a set up role with the Boston Red Sox. And let's not forget the Mitchell Report either, of which Gagne is wisely avoiding any discussion. The real problem last season was not that the bullpen was inadequate as much as the starting pitchers were not able to pitch late into games. The bottom line is that the bullpen just became tired last season, which did not bode well come August and September.
I think that the depth of the bullpen will be remarkable this season. It'll be difficult to see how it will shake out since there is certainly a battle for who will hold the top five spots in the rotation. A healthy Ben Sheets will make a huge difference on the club, and the club now has to wait and see how Yovanni Gallardo heals from his minor knee injury (he's expected to be set back about a month). This might actually work in favor for a few others who are looking for a spot in the rotation. Right now, the five spots are being fought for by Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargus, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueava, Manny Parra, Dave Bush and Gallardo when he returns. Unlike last season, there is a lot of depth in starting pitching, and I hope the Crew does not entertain trading any of that depth.
Third baseman, Bill Hall (Finally)
I still do not understand why the Brewers wanted to move Bill Hall to centerfield when it was apparent in 2006 that he was an excellent infielder. But the Brewers thought that Bill Hall had the proclivity to play the position, and to his credit, he did improve quite a bit through the season. But, I firmly believe when you take a player and move him defensively into an unnatural position you put an awful lot on him and his offense tends to suffer. Bill Hall is another casualty of a team experimenting. I can't blame the Brewers though, since they are, after all, a small market team and they were merely trying to use a valuable resource. If the move worked, it would have been viewed as one of the most brilliant moves in Brewer history, but as it was, it was a bit of bust. It definitely could have been far worse, but we all knew good and well that Bill Hall should have been at third last year when Corie Koskie's recovery seemed unlikely.
Ryan Braun certainly lacked the defensive prowess needed at the position, but he showed flashes of brilliance as well. I think he would have been an able third baseman given time, but the Brewers feel that is not a luxury they can afford right now. Replacing third base with a capable glove means a very strong infield, and that also means less extended innings via free outs (errors).
Was Bill Hall happy about the move to third base? In a JSOnline article by Anthony Witrado it's pretty clear that Bill Hall was a bit surprised when Doug Melvin signed Mike Cameron to play centerfield. But, Bill Hall also stated, "My whole thing is I just want to get somewhere where I can get comfortable for the rest of my career" which suggests to me that he's very open to be the third baseman of the Brewers.
Batting Order Issues
One of the things the Brewers will have to work out this spring training is the batting order, especially with the heart of the order. The problem? Who will hit third and fourth. Last season, the combination of having Braun hitting third and Fielder cleanup was excellent, but what happens this year? Some have suggested moving Fielder to third to give him a chance to see some better pitches. I think that's a good move as well, but I also don't see how you can go wrong with either in the third hole or cleanup.
The big issue, to me, is the lead-off. And it all comes down to whether Ricky Weeks' wrist is really healthy again, because we know he can run. I liked having Corey Hart hitting leadoff last season, although he's not your prototypical leadoff hitter. He hit .295 last season and he even showed a great deal of power, which is why I'd probably think more about placing him either as number 2 or 5. Mike Cameron will probably be given a good look at leadoff, but I actually think I'd move him down lower.
As of today, here's what I'd use as a starting lineup (sans pitcher):
Rickey Weeks (2B)
JJ Hardy (SS)
Ryan Braun (LF)
Prince Fielder (1B)
Bill Hall (3B)
Corey Hart (RF)
Mike Cameron (CF)
Jason Kendall (C)
My thoughts may change given the way players perform in spring training. But having Rickey leading off makes the most sense to me and then having JJ in the number 2 hole works because he has improved so much as a hitter the last couple of seasons. I think this is a formidable lineup and capable of sending another 200+ baseballs over the fence again this season.
As for the starting rotation:
Ben Sheets
Yovanni Gallardo
Chris Capuano
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra
I think this rotation would be strong, and I also believe Cappy can be replaced by Villanueva if he still can't return to his form. I think Cappy is due to bounce back. I also think Manny Parra wins a position or gets traded. As for Dave Bush, I'd move him in the bullpen and give him some spot starts.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Brewers Notes: January 22, 2008
Okay, now that the Packers have bowed out of the playoffs, I guess the time is at hand to start thinking about warm, sunny Arizona and spring training. By the way, pitchers and catchers report on February 16, in case you are wondering.
First order of business: pitching. The Brewers are loaded with potential starting pitching, and as such I will be very surprised if the Brewers do not unload one (if not to dump salary as much as pick up a prospect or two). Here's the pitchers with the potential to be in the starting rotation and comments about them (in no particular order):
1. Ben Sheets. Obviously, he'll be the number 1 in the rotation. He's coming off a 12-5 season (3.82 era) in 24 games. The Brewers desperately need Ben to remain injury-free. Most Brewers fans keep waiting for that season to come about in which he will be a Cy Young award candidate. More importantly, he needs to step up as the ace of a contending team.
2. Jeff Suppan. The highly coveted pitcher who was pryed away last year from the 2006 World Series champions was a bit of a disappointment for the Brew Crew faithful. While he won 12 games last season - which was the amount he won in 2006 - he also lost 12 and his ballooned 4.62 era did not exactly bode well for the Brewers. Suppan got into a lot of trouble last season, but he also ate up a lot of innings. Personally, I think I'd keep him in the starting rotation as the 4th starter.
3. Yovani Gallardo. Already given a vote of confidence by Doug Melvin and Ned Yost, Gallardo was a shining star in a depleted starting corps last season. There's no doubt that he'll improve even more going into spring training penciled in as one of the starting pitchers. I personally saw him in several games last season and was taken aback by his lively fastball and incredible breaking pitches. And, he'll only be 22 years old this season, but he pitches like he's been a veteran for several seasons.
4. Carlos Villanueva. Here's another young pitcher (25 years old) who definitely showed he belongs in the majors. Doug Melvin has already stated that Villanueva has a place in the starting rotation to lose. I thought he has some great games, but he could be a little inconsistent at times. Being part of the starting rotation, however, will make him more consistent in my opinion since he would have a defined role from the beginning of the season.
5. Chris Capuano. Chris Capuano was the unluckiest pitcher last season, and I think his injury was a bit more pervasive than he stated. In any case, as the season progressed, I kept feeling that his mechanics were really bad. If he is healthy again, Cappy could be a number 2 or 3 starter again, and the Brewers would have a formidable rotation (perhaps, in the very least, the best in the Central division). But, Cappy has not been the pitcher that we was since before the All-Star Game in 2006 and he needs to regain that composure to win a spot in the rotation. The Brewers definitely looked to unload him during the winter, probably to avoid the $3.75 million that he made in his new contract.
6. Dave Bush. Dave Bush had good games and bad games, and his 5.12 era suggests that he was an inconsistent starting pitcher. He gave 27 homeruns in 186.1 innings as well as 217 hits (amounting to an unwieldy .290 opposing batting average). In other words, when Bush was bad, he was very bad, when he was good, though, he could be exceptional. The problem is when you are on a contending team you need to be consistent. I see Bush going to the bullpen to pitch in long relief.
7. Claudio Vargas. Claudio Vargas won 11 games and had a few bad outings. Like Bush, he suffers from inconsistency, but that could be because his role on the team has not been clearly defined. It might be worth considering him for the 5th spot, but if all else fails, he should do well in long relief. But I think to get the most out of him, he needs his role defined before the season starts.
8. Manny Parra. Manny Parra seems to be a "sure thing" at some point. The question will be whether the Brewers are willing to bring a starter with little big league experience into the rotation on a club that wants to win the division this season. Parra's 25 years old and has shown some incredible stuff in the minors and was impressive in his spot starts for the Brewers last season. I think that the Brewers will more than likely keep Parra at AAA for the beginning of the season and call him up as needed, especially if the starting rotation blows up like last season.
Bloggers across the Brew Crew have been speculating quite a few things regarding the rotation. One thing I think won't happen is that Manny Parra will be dealt in a trade. He's too good. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Vargas and someone else involved. I'd like to see Capuano prove to everyone that he's a bona fide number two or three starter, as well as shake that awful losing monkey off his back. I wouldn't bother speculating on what the rotation will be, because I think Doug Melvin will be working something to break the logjam somewhat. I've heard from a couple places that the Brewers are interested in Chone Figgins, which means the Brewers would have to give up some key players (probably Parra and Capuano and/or Bill Hall). I'm not sure how important Figgins would be to the Brewers as I think Hall will play well there and Ryan Braun should not be too concerned about his time in the outfield. But, who knows what is being discussed behind closed doors!
First order of business: pitching. The Brewers are loaded with potential starting pitching, and as such I will be very surprised if the Brewers do not unload one (if not to dump salary as much as pick up a prospect or two). Here's the pitchers with the potential to be in the starting rotation and comments about them (in no particular order):
1. Ben Sheets. Obviously, he'll be the number 1 in the rotation. He's coming off a 12-5 season (3.82 era) in 24 games. The Brewers desperately need Ben to remain injury-free. Most Brewers fans keep waiting for that season to come about in which he will be a Cy Young award candidate. More importantly, he needs to step up as the ace of a contending team.
2. Jeff Suppan. The highly coveted pitcher who was pryed away last year from the 2006 World Series champions was a bit of a disappointment for the Brew Crew faithful. While he won 12 games last season - which was the amount he won in 2006 - he also lost 12 and his ballooned 4.62 era did not exactly bode well for the Brewers. Suppan got into a lot of trouble last season, but he also ate up a lot of innings. Personally, I think I'd keep him in the starting rotation as the 4th starter.
3. Yovani Gallardo. Already given a vote of confidence by Doug Melvin and Ned Yost, Gallardo was a shining star in a depleted starting corps last season. There's no doubt that he'll improve even more going into spring training penciled in as one of the starting pitchers. I personally saw him in several games last season and was taken aback by his lively fastball and incredible breaking pitches. And, he'll only be 22 years old this season, but he pitches like he's been a veteran for several seasons.
4. Carlos Villanueva. Here's another young pitcher (25 years old) who definitely showed he belongs in the majors. Doug Melvin has already stated that Villanueva has a place in the starting rotation to lose. I thought he has some great games, but he could be a little inconsistent at times. Being part of the starting rotation, however, will make him more consistent in my opinion since he would have a defined role from the beginning of the season.
5. Chris Capuano. Chris Capuano was the unluckiest pitcher last season, and I think his injury was a bit more pervasive than he stated. In any case, as the season progressed, I kept feeling that his mechanics were really bad. If he is healthy again, Cappy could be a number 2 or 3 starter again, and the Brewers would have a formidable rotation (perhaps, in the very least, the best in the Central division). But, Cappy has not been the pitcher that we was since before the All-Star Game in 2006 and he needs to regain that composure to win a spot in the rotation. The Brewers definitely looked to unload him during the winter, probably to avoid the $3.75 million that he made in his new contract.
6. Dave Bush. Dave Bush had good games and bad games, and his 5.12 era suggests that he was an inconsistent starting pitcher. He gave 27 homeruns in 186.1 innings as well as 217 hits (amounting to an unwieldy .290 opposing batting average). In other words, when Bush was bad, he was very bad, when he was good, though, he could be exceptional. The problem is when you are on a contending team you need to be consistent. I see Bush going to the bullpen to pitch in long relief.
7. Claudio Vargas. Claudio Vargas won 11 games and had a few bad outings. Like Bush, he suffers from inconsistency, but that could be because his role on the team has not been clearly defined. It might be worth considering him for the 5th spot, but if all else fails, he should do well in long relief. But I think to get the most out of him, he needs his role defined before the season starts.
8. Manny Parra. Manny Parra seems to be a "sure thing" at some point. The question will be whether the Brewers are willing to bring a starter with little big league experience into the rotation on a club that wants to win the division this season. Parra's 25 years old and has shown some incredible stuff in the minors and was impressive in his spot starts for the Brewers last season. I think that the Brewers will more than likely keep Parra at AAA for the beginning of the season and call him up as needed, especially if the starting rotation blows up like last season.
Bloggers across the Brew Crew have been speculating quite a few things regarding the rotation. One thing I think won't happen is that Manny Parra will be dealt in a trade. He's too good. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Vargas and someone else involved. I'd like to see Capuano prove to everyone that he's a bona fide number two or three starter, as well as shake that awful losing monkey off his back. I wouldn't bother speculating on what the rotation will be, because I think Doug Melvin will be working something to break the logjam somewhat. I've heard from a couple places that the Brewers are interested in Chone Figgins, which means the Brewers would have to give up some key players (probably Parra and Capuano and/or Bill Hall). I'm not sure how important Figgins would be to the Brewers as I think Hall will play well there and Ryan Braun should not be too concerned about his time in the outfield. But, who knows what is being discussed behind closed doors!
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Spring is coming
Winter in Wisconsin can be so harsh. After all, we are expecting subzero temperatures this weekend, just in time for the New York Giants to come to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. It seems so distant, that old game of baseball, that we forget that there really is a lot of action happening.
Yet, there is always the yearning for the spring and the beginning of my life which revolves mostly around the grand old game. I completely empathize with Rogers Hornsby who once stated: "People as me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
So, for me, spring comes February 14th. That's when the Atlanta Braves' pitchers and catchers report. And for the Brewers, it's the 16th.
So, with that in mind, let's review what has happened in the last month since I last blogged about my two favorite teams.
Gagne, Kapler, and Mike Cameron
Okay, so the Brew Crew didn't get Scott Rolen (who was traded to the Blue Jays for Troy Glaus yesterday). Most of the Brew Crew faithful that I talked with were a bit dismayed that Doug Melvin went after Gabe Kapler. After all, why do you bring a player out of retirement (Kapler was managing last season in the minors)? The answer: insurance. Melvin conceded that the free agent market for corner outfielders was bleak, plus he was unwilling to move too many players because he stated that he did not want to create a hole after filling a hole. The other reason for the Kapler signing is that Kapler was always known for his outstanding defense, something that the Brewers wanted to upgrade. Yet, the question of the day was always how were the Brewers going to address the infield defense, not so much how were they going to address the outfield defense.
But alas, we finally got the big signing in Mike Cameron (who will be sitting out the first 25 games). Cameron is expected to play Center and Bill Hall will be moved to third base, with Ryan Braun moving to left field. So, the outfield should be rather sound with Braun, Cameron and Corey Hart and Gabe Gross and Kapler as capable backups. This also allows Tony Gwynn, Jr. a little more time to be seasoned for next season. And, the nice thing about the contract with Mike Cameron is that there is a club option for next season, in case things aren't working well down on the farm for a replacement next seasons in Center.
As for the Gagne signing, this could be a boost for the Brewers if Gagne is actually healthy as he states. My feeling is that the Brewers may consider Shouse in the closing role if Gagne fails...maybe even before turning the ball over to Turnbow.
I'll write more shortly on the Braves' offseason moves.
Yet, there is always the yearning for the spring and the beginning of my life which revolves mostly around the grand old game. I completely empathize with Rogers Hornsby who once stated: "People as me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
So, for me, spring comes February 14th. That's when the Atlanta Braves' pitchers and catchers report. And for the Brewers, it's the 16th.
So, with that in mind, let's review what has happened in the last month since I last blogged about my two favorite teams.
Gagne, Kapler, and Mike Cameron
Okay, so the Brew Crew didn't get Scott Rolen (who was traded to the Blue Jays for Troy Glaus yesterday). Most of the Brew Crew faithful that I talked with were a bit dismayed that Doug Melvin went after Gabe Kapler. After all, why do you bring a player out of retirement (Kapler was managing last season in the minors)? The answer: insurance. Melvin conceded that the free agent market for corner outfielders was bleak, plus he was unwilling to move too many players because he stated that he did not want to create a hole after filling a hole. The other reason for the Kapler signing is that Kapler was always known for his outstanding defense, something that the Brewers wanted to upgrade. Yet, the question of the day was always how were the Brewers going to address the infield defense, not so much how were they going to address the outfield defense.
But alas, we finally got the big signing in Mike Cameron (who will be sitting out the first 25 games). Cameron is expected to play Center and Bill Hall will be moved to third base, with Ryan Braun moving to left field. So, the outfield should be rather sound with Braun, Cameron and Corey Hart and Gabe Gross and Kapler as capable backups. This also allows Tony Gwynn, Jr. a little more time to be seasoned for next season. And, the nice thing about the contract with Mike Cameron is that there is a club option for next season, in case things aren't working well down on the farm for a replacement next seasons in Center.
As for the Gagne signing, this could be a boost for the Brewers if Gagne is actually healthy as he states. My feeling is that the Brewers may consider Shouse in the closing role if Gagne fails...maybe even before turning the ball over to Turnbow.
I'll write more shortly on the Braves' offseason moves.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
